A new study published in the Lancet medical journal has revealed that nearly 60% of all adults and a third of all children worldwide will be overweight or obese by 2050 unless governments take action.
The research, which used data from 204 countries, paints a grim picture of what it describes as one of the great health challenges of the century.
According to the study, the number of overweight or obese people worldwide rose from 929 million in 1990 to 2.6 billion in 2021.
Without a serious change, the researchers estimate that 3.8 billion adults will be overweight or obese in 15 years – or around 60% of the global adult population in 2050.
The world’s health systems will come under crippling pressure, the researchers warned, with around a quarter of the world’s obese expected to be aged over 65 by that time.
They also predicted a 121% increase in obesity among children and adolescents worldwide.
A third of all obese young people will be living in two regions – North Africa and the Middle East, and Latin America and the Caribbean – by 2050, the researchers warned.
Lead author Emmanuela Gakidou, from the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), described the situation as “a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure.”
Study co-author Jessica Kerr from Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia emphasized the need for stronger political commitment to transform diets within sustainable global food systems.
The researchers also called for strategies that improve people’s nutrition, physical activity, and living environments.
The study found that more than half the world’s overweight or obese adults already live in just eight countries – China, India, the United States, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Egypt.
While poor diet and sedentary lifestyles are clearly drivers of the obesity epidemic, there remains doubt about the underlying causes, said Thorkild Sorensen, a researcher at the University of Copenhagen not involved in the study.
The research is based on figures from the Global Burden of Disease study from the IHME, which brings together thousands of researchers across the world and is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
